National population projections

Updated: 5 July 2022

Next update: Not yet determined

Inhabitants expected in Norway in 2060 (main alternative) approx.
Inhabitants expected in Norway in 2060 (main alternative) approx.
6.1
million
Projected population figures 2020-2100
Projected population figures 2020-2100
20222040206020802100
Population (main alternative, MMM)5 425 2705 887 5676 101 1916 197 3836 195 332
Population (low alternative, LLL)5 425 2705 496 7405 175 7624 628 5003 940 720
Population (high alternative, HHH)5 425 2706 267 3707 087 5648 049 8369 123 053
Net migration (main alternative, MMM)37 25111 67210 79411 78512 150
Net migration (low alternative, MML)24 0725 1803 5223 0101 967
Net migration (high alternative, MMH)65 03521 87026 80031 01035 052
Fertility (main alternative, MMM)1.501.701.701.711.71
Fertility (low alternative, LMM)1.301.301.311.311.31
Fertility (high alternative, HMM)1.591.901.901.901.90
Life expectancy (main alternative, MMM)83.486.990.092.394.1
Life expectancy (low alternative, MLM)83.185.688.090.191.7
Life expectancy (high alternative, MHM)83.788.291.694.296.1
Explanation of symbols

Selected tables and figures from this statistics

  • Total population January 1. Registered 2022 and projected in three alternatives
    Total population January 1. Registered 2022 and projected in three alternatives
    Registered 20221 Projected alternative2
    Main alternative (MMM)Low national growth (LLL)High national growth (HHH)
    Population5 425 270
    20255 535 3905 473 4955 616 131
    20405 887 5675 496 7406 267 370
    20606 101 1915 175 7627 087 564
    21006 195 3323 940 7209 123 053
    1Total population registered per January 1 2022.
    2Refers to high and low national growth alternatives.
    Explanation of symbols
  • Population, registered and projected. 1980-2060

  • Fertility
    Fertility
    Registered 2021Projected alternative
    Main alternative (MMM)Low fertility (LMM)High fertility (HMM)
    Total fertility rate1.55
    20251.501.311.67
    20401.701.301.90
    20601.701.311.90
    21001.711.311.90
    Live births56 060
    202554 90348 24561 190
    204059 78645 76266 803
    206055 40937 47266 412
    210055 25530 83371 625
    Explanation of symbols
  • Projected fertility rate

  • Life expectancy
    Life expectancy
    Registered 2021Projected alternative1
    Medium life expectancyLow life expectancyHigh life expectancy
    Life expectancy at birth men81.59
    202582.581.883.1
    204085.683.987.0
    206088.986.491.0
    210093.789.796.5
    Life expectancy at birth women84.73
    202585.584.986.0
    204088.186.789.4
    206090.988.892.7
    210094.691.996.9
    Deaths42 002
    202542 76145 01440 640
    204052 71256 52649 272
    206061 63664 90958 779
    210066 40266 93065 844
    1Refers to high and low life expectancy alternatives.
    Explanation of symbols
  • Life expectancy 1980-2060

  • Immigration and emigration
    Immigration and emigration
    Registered 2021Projected alternative1 2
    Main alternative (MMM)Low immigration (MML)High immigration (MMH)
    Immigration53 947
    202542 89435 25051 665
    204039 63429 87854 865
    206036 15123 36662 978
    210035 03015 08080 849
    Emigration34 297
    202530 61928 82633 550
    204027 96224 69832 994
    206025 35719 84436 177
    210022 88013 11345 798
    Net migration19 650
    202512 2756 42518 115
    204011 6725 18021 870
    206010 7943 52226 800
    210012 1501 96735 052
    1Refers to high and low immigration alternatives.
    2Figures for net migration are rounded after subtracting number of emigrations from number of immigrations.
    Explanation of symbols
  • Net migration1980-2060

About the statistics

National population projections are calculations of how the population in Norway will potentially develop over time, given different assumptions about fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration.

A population projection is an estimate of the future size and composition of a population, given certain assumptions of future fertility, life expectancy, immigration and emigration. The term projection is used for any estimate of the future population, including less likely ones. A prognosis or forecast is an estimate of the most probable future population size and composition.

Statistics Norway publishes several projections, but the MMM alternative, which assumes the medium level for each component, is what we assume to be most plausible.

The various alternatives and terms used in the population projections are described in the projections report (see link under 'Relevant documentation').

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Name: National population projections
Topic: Population

Not yet determined

Research department, Unit for Social and Demographic Research

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The national population projections are published biennially.

Statistics Norway reports projections to Eurostat and the United Nations, among others.

The population projections utilize aggregated individual-level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. The results from the projections are stored in the StatBank at Statistics Norway and as separate files. Aggregated data may be downloaded electronically from the StatBank.

The population projections aim at informing planning and public debate on population issues.

Statistics Norway has produced population projections regularly since the 1950s. Previous population projections can be found here, and in the StatBank.

The most important users of Statistics Norway's population projections are public and private planning bodies at the municipal, county and central government levels, as well as researchers, politicians, journalists and the general public. The projections are also used internally at Statistics Norway, for example as input in macroeconomic models.

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The population projections are published in accordance with international standards. The Norwegian figures are more detailed (immigration category, country group and period of residence) than what is commonly published in most other countries.

There are no specific rules regulating the population projections, but the production process of the projections is based in the Norwegian Statistics Act of 2019.

Although there is no separate EU regulation in this field, a collaboration exists between Norway and Eurostat. Eurostat produces population projections for the EU and Norway on a regular basis. These projections differ from those produced by Statistics Norway.

To project the population, assumptions are needed on future fertility, mortality and international migration. After the assumptions are made, the Norwegian population is projected using the cohort component model BEFINN.

The methods used are further described in the projections report (see link under 'Relevant documentation').

The population projections utilize aggregated individual-level data on population size, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics. We use data categorized by age, sex, immigrant background and country group of origin for 1 January each year, in addition to figures on births, deaths, immigration and emigration by age and sex.

No samples are used. The projections utilize the whole population in estimations.

The methods used in the population projections are described in detail in the projections report (see link under 'Relevant documentation').

No data are collected specifically for the purpose of making population projections.

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At a national level, previous versions of the population projections are comparable. Though country groups are not entirely comparable over time, since the definition and the number of groups have varied.

In comparing results from the population projections to the general population statistics at Statistics Norway, two main differences stand out:

  1. The projection models project the population from 1 January one year to 1 January the year after. This means that individuals who move between Norway and other countries several times during one year only contribute one move. Consequently, somewhat fewer migrations are used in the population projections compared to the numbers that are published in the general population statistics.
  2. The age definitions are not the same in the projections and the general population statistics. While the general population statistics use age at time of event (e.g. birth, death or migration), the projections use age at the end of the year. This means that the age-specific rates and probabilities used in the projections – as well as the life expectancy figures – may differ slightly from what is published in the population statistics.

There is marked uncertainty about whether the assumptions used in making the population projections will accurately reflect future demographic trends. Over the past decade, future immigration has proven to be the most difficult component to project. This is also likely to be the case in the years ahead. Fertility and mortality rates can also be very different to what is projected.

Models are simplifications of reality, and as such may only capture a few key mechanisms. There are a multitude of other conditions that will affect population development which are not considered.

Errors in the population statistics system are usually modest in Norway and play a minor role in the projections.

In general, uncertainty increases with time. For more information, see links under ‘Relevant documentation’.

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Key figure pages

Contact

Statistics Norway's Information Centre

informasjon@ssb.no

(+47) 21 09 46 42

Inquiries about national projections

nasjfram@ssb.no

Ane Margrete Tømmerås

ane.tommeras@ssb.no

(+47) 91 99 29 62

Inquiries about regional projections

regfram@ssb.no